Despite all of the contrary belief, Egypt is certainly under deep trouble. We have seen a very aggressive campaign of the Army against the civilian leadership in the past few days, and it begs the question, why after so much trouble go back to square one?
It’s much like the monopoly game where if a player lands the wrong turn, he/she ends up in jail or goes back to square one. This subtle game of destruction of Muslim nation states has gone much farther than one would anticipate and not only has it engulfed the entire region, it has also pulled Pakistan into the mix as well.
We now turn our attention towards the sequence of events following the revolution in Egypt which led to the downfall of Hosni Mubarak in 2010/2011 period. We saw a sea of people converging on the Tahrir Square to protest and eradicate the 30 year long rule of Hosni Mubarak who was determined not to let go. After a fierce struggle, seemingly, the people of Egypt triumph and Hosni is dethroned.
After which another sequence of events led to a fierce struggle of the people and the Egyptian army to ‘elect’ their leader this time around. Elections were held several months later, and a new face emerged victorious: Dr. Mohammad Morsi, a seemingly fine gentleman wearing square shaped glasses and a big chin. However, under the circumstances of borrowed loans from IMF and other money lending entities, Egypt yet again faces huge amount of turmoil, and a failed government now seems extremely incompetent to handle the everyday challenges in the lives of ordinary Egyptians.
After another ‘fierce’ struggle, the president is dethroned yet again! But this time it is not the people who did it, it was the Egyptian army. And so, not only is the democratic process most indefinitely held out, the Egyptian army now has gone down the road of the Yugoslavian army: fighting its own people, and if anyone can clearly remember what happened to a country like Yugoslavia, surely they can put the pieces together and come to a logical conclusion of what will happen in an event this tussle escalates.
In this event, not only will Egypt be prone to outside invasion, it will be severely weakened as well; inviting an all-out buffet for the Israeli leadership to take charge of the country.
Now let’s look at it in another perspective: Pakistan. The Pakistani military still is holding its ground very well, and under all circumstances and predictions has emerged victorious gloriously by pushing back the insurgency in its western territory and dispelling the “bad image” campaign which sought to malign the Pakistan Army and raise questions on the authenticity of its fight of whether or not they are “fighting their own people?”
Through understanding and delegation, assessing their situation and analyzing the threats correctly, Pakistan Army launched a massive counter-attack which not only baffled the Armies of the world, but also utterly disfigured the resolve of the TTP.
From the lessons of Egypt, Pakistan army has several options available, though the situation in both the countries appears to be very, very similar to each other: Pakistan has an incompetent failed government which has failed to punish the terrorists, but has instead engaged in a tussle against the Army, and the people of Pakistan are despairing yet again. The following scenarios can be played out:
1) Pakistan army goes the path of the Yugoslavian army, takes over the government, ousts all power from the civilian set up and completely disintegrates the state by engaging in civil war: a very unlikely scenario but nonetheless something those who would like to see Pakistan balkanized would most certainly entertain themselves to.
2) Pakistan army chooses not to engage themselves in this matter and let the incompetent government handle things; which it most certainly will not (under any situation or circumstances).
3) Pakistan army chooses to act through deliberation and takes over the government, keeps the power within the civil set up and brings in caretaker government which would be allowed to stabilize the country for no more than 2 years until a reliable government can be formed.
The third is the most likely scenario to be played out under the current circumstances but even then, one cannot fully give an accurate detailed account of which scenario is the most likely to be played out.
However, Pakistan army would be wise enough to learn from Egypt and refrain from any unnecessary bloodshed and discourse of violence and they can do this by engaging with the civilian leadership: Non-Politicized Youth of Pakistan.